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Electricity Investments and Nuclear Development: Investment Choice Modeling based on Value Creation
Tehrani, B. S.; Bocquer, J.- C.; Tomoda, T.
Type:
Year:
2014
Editor:
Marle, F.; Jankovic, M.; Maurer, M.; Schmidt, D. M.; Lindemann, U.
Author:
Series:
DSM
Section:
DSM in Decision-Making
Page(s):
97-106
Abstract:
While nuclear power may experience a technological breakthrough in Europe with Generation IV nuclear reactors within 2040, several events could question this possibility such as the Fukushima accident, the climate issues and the electricity market liberalization. This paper aims at analyzing investment choices in power generation capacities in the European scope, using simple DSM-inspired approaches. The power company and interacting stakeholders in the investment choice process are considered as a complex system, and dependencies between investment drivers associated with each stakeholder are studied. Focusing on the value for the power company, the compatibility of each power company with each of considered technologies is assessed through a Domain Mapping Matrix, including not only technical drivers, but also associated policy and market drivers. Technology preferences are modeled for main European companies in a set of scenarios, these preferences being then used to explore trends in generation mix.
Keywords:
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