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DESIGNING SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY SCENARIOS USING FORECASTING
Mizuno, Yuji; Kishita, Yusuke; Wada, Haruna; Hirosaki, Maki; Fukushige, Shinichi; Umeda, Yasushi
Type:
Year:
2011
Editor:
Culley, S.J.; Hicks, B.J.; McAloone, T.C.; Howard, T.J. & Malmqvist, J.
Author:
Series:
ICED
Section:
Design for X, Design to X
Page(s):
135-144
Abstract:
Environmental problems such as resource depletion or climate change are the most serious problems for society and industry. In order to deal with such problems, scenario writing is a useful methodology for envisioning ideal future, such as sustainable society. Although describing these scenarios requires a lot of time and a large amount of works, there is no computational support for it. In order to resolve this problem, this paper proposes a design methodology of scenarios based on forecasting approach, which explores future from current situation. In order to realize computational scenario design support, we formalize the design process as four steps; setting problems, constructing causal networks, describing storylines, and describing scenario texts. And we develop Scenario Design Support System for supporting the scenario design process on a computer. For testing the proposed methodology, we designed “Electric Vehicle Diffused Society Scenario” as a case study. In the case study, proposed process and design support methodology are useful for designing a forecasting scenario.
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