DESIGNING SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY SCENARIOS USING FORECASTING
DS 68-5: Proceedings of the 18th International Conference on Engineering Design (ICED 11), Impacting Society through Engineering Design, Vol. 5: Design for X / Design to X, Lyngby/Copenhagen, Denmark, 15.-19.08.2011
Editor: Culley, S.J.; Hicks, B.J.; McAloone, T.C.; Howard, T.J. & Malmqvist, J.
Author: Mizuno, Yuji; Kishita, Yusuke; Wada, Haruna; Hirosaki, Maki; Fukushige, Shinichi; Umeda, Yasushi
Section: Design for X, Design to X
Environmental problems such as resource depletion or climate change are the most serious problems for society and industry. In order to deal with such problems, scenario writing is a useful methodology for envisioning ideal future, such as sustainable society. Although describing these scenarios requires a lot of time and a large amount of works, there is no computational support for it. In order to resolve this problem, this paper proposes a design methodology of scenarios based on forecasting approach, which explores future from current situation. In order to realize computational scenario design support, we formalize the design process as four steps; setting problems, constructing causal networks, describing storylines, and describing scenario texts. And we develop Scenario Design Support System for supporting the scenario design process on a computer. For testing the proposed methodology, we designed “Electric Vehicle Diffused Society Scenario” as a case study. In the case study, proposed process and design support methodology are useful for designing a forecasting scenario.
Keywords: SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY; SCENARIO DESIGN; SCENARIO; FORECASTING