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Manuguerra, Luca; Mandolini, Marco; Germani, Michele; Sartini, Mikhailo

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Abstract:

Machine learning (ML) is a well-established research topic in Industry 4.0 is boosting its adoption. ML is also used for manufacturing cost estimation during design. Such approaches are commonly used to estimate the cost of mass-produced parts. Many consolidated historical data are available for training the regression models. Unfortunately, very often, such a database of data is not available.

The paper defines an ML approach for parametric cost estimation of axisymmetric components. The data for training the ML model derives from automatic software for analytically estimating the manufacturing cost. With a proper set of simulations, the tool can generate a large amount of data for training. The paper presents the steps for developing a parametric cost model using ML. The approach is based on CRoss Industry Standard Process for Data Mining method. The proposed method was used to develop one cost model (to estimate the total cost that considered raw material and manufacturing cost). The obtained Relative Error is 23.52% ± 1.37%, coherent with E2516 − 11, Standard Classification for Cost Estimate Classification System.

Keywords:

Design costing, Machine learning, Conceptual design, Big data