Maturity of models in a multi-model decision support system
Year: 2017
Editor: Anja Maier, Stanko Škec, Harrison Kim, Michael Kokkolaras, Josef Oehmen, Georges Fadel, Filippo Salustri, Mike Van der Loos
Author: Johansson, Christian; Wall, Johan; Panarotto, Massimo
Series: ICED
Institution: 1: Blekinge Institute of Technology, Sweden; 2: Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden
Section: Design Information and Knowledge
Page(s): 237-246
ISBN: 978-1-904670-94-0
ISSN: 2220-4342
Abstract
To reduce uncertainty in decisions, engineers experiment with models, such as, exploring what-if scenarios, and thus increase knowledge. Still, because modelling is an idealisation of reality, there is often substantial uncertainty involved, and this decision makers less confident to lean onto models alone when making decisions. The aim of this paper is to conceptualize a design support for improving confidence and validity in models, by communicating uncertainties from modelling and simulation to relevant stakeholders. The paper reports on empirical data from a research profile workshop. The findings illustrate the importance of communicating uncertainties from models between relevant stakeholders in order to drive action. The paper then presents an approach to visualize model maturity levels as well as impact levels in relation to one or several aggregated models. With this approach, focus can move to discuss the knowledge about the knowledge that is created from modelling, and to facilitate discussions on a meta-level about the modelling and simulation. This is exemplified by a test scenario where a multi-disciplinary modelling and simulation of an asphalt roller is presented.
Keywords: Decision making, Simulation, Uncertainty, Visualisation, Modelling