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In addition to research papers, the Design Society is developing several valuable resources for those interested in the study of design. These include a repository of PhD theses, a library of case studies and transcripts of design activities, and an archive of our newsletters. Please note that these resources are accessible exclusively to Design Society members.

Bayesian optimal experimental design for circular business models

Yoshiki, Eiji; Tsurusaki, Yudai; Kimita, Koji

Type:
Papers
DS 145: Proceedings of the DESIGN2026 19th International Design Conference
Year:
2026
Editor:
Štorga, M.; Škec, S.; Martinec, T.; Marjanović, D.; Pavković, N.
Author:
Yoshiki, Eiji; Tsurusaki, Yudai; Kimita, Koji
Series:
DESIGN
Institution:
The University of Tokyo, Japan
Page(s):
917-926
DOI number:
10.1017/pds.2026.10450
ISSN:
2732-527X (Online)
Abstract:
Implementing circular business models (CBMs) like Product-as-a-Service entails high uncertainty, necessitating costly and prolonged business experimentation. To efficiently mitigate this uncertainty, Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design is applied to the CBM context, selecting conditions that maximize the Expected Information Gain for unknown CBM parameters. Applied to an air conditioner subscription case study, the method successfully identified optimal conditions from 124 candidates. This approach facilitates CBM implementation by efficiently minimizing uncertainty under limited resources.
Keywords:
circular economy, business experimentation, bayesian optimal experimental design, simulation-based design
DESIGN2026 - The 19th International Design Conference
Conferences

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