INFORMATION DISPLAY FOR DECISIONS UNDER UNCERTAINTY

DS 60: Proceedings of DESIGN 2010, the 11th International Design Conference, Dubrovnik, Croatia

Year: 2010
Editor: Marjanovic D., Storga M., Pavkovic N., Bojcetic N.
Author: Kreye, M. E.; Goh, Y. M.; Newnes, L. B.
Section: DESIGN INFORMATION AND KNOWLEDGE
Page(s): 1565-1574

Abstract

In the early product design stage, considering the Through Life Cost and uncertainty are important. However, the information given to the decision maker is often limited, resulting in a large level of subjectivity. This paper introduces experimental research exploring different information displays and their subjective interpretation by cost forecasters within the defence and aerospace sector. Three different kinds of information display and different levels of detail of contextual information were tested, showing that they impact the decision making process and subjective interpretation.

Keywords: forecasting, decision making, uncertainty, through life costing

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