Knowledge Base Repository
In addition to research papers, the Design Society is developing several valuable resources for those interested in the study of design. These include a repository of PhD theses, a library of case studies and transcripts of design activities, and an archive of our newsletters. Please note that these resources are accessible exclusively to Design Society members.
POST-PROBABILISTIC UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION: DISCUSSION OF POTENTIAL USE IN PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT RISK MANAGEMENT
Tegeltija, M.; Oehmen, J.; Kozine, I.; Geraldi, J.
Type:
Year:
2016
Editor:
Marjanovic Dorian, Storga Mario, Pavkovic Neven, Bojcetic Nenad, Skec Stanko
Author:
Series:
DESIGN
Section:
DESIGN METHODS
Page(s):
533-542
Abstract:
Uncertainty represents one of the key challenges in product development (PD) projects. Traditionally, risk management quantification methods have been based on probability theory. Those methods showed reliable results for problems dominated by aleatory, i.e. stochastic, uncertainty. To address epistemic uncertainty, i.e. uncertainty that arises from a lack of knowledge, we need to go beyond this traditional approach. Post-probabilistic methods promise improvements. We discuss three possible approaches: Imprecise Probability, the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence and NUSAP Scheme.
Keywords:
