POST-PROBABILISTIC UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION: DISCUSSION OF POTENTIAL USE IN PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT RISK MANAGEMENT
Editor: Marjanovic Dorian, Storga Mario, Pavkovic Neven, Bojcetic Nenad, Skec Stanko
Author: Tegeltija, M.; Oehmen, J.; Kozine, I.; Geraldi, J.
Section: DESIGN METHODS
Uncertainty represents one of the key challenges in product development (PD) projects. Traditionally, risk management quantification methods have been based on probability theory. Those methods showed reliable results for problems dominated by aleatory, i.e. stochastic, uncertainty. To address epistemic uncertainty, i.e. uncertainty that arises from a lack of knowledge, we need to go beyond this traditional approach. Post-probabilistic methods promise improvements. We discuss three possible approaches: Imprecise Probability, the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence and NUSAP Scheme.