An integrated screening framework to analyze flexibility in engineering systems design
Editor: Udo Lindemann, Srinivasan V, Yong Se Kim, Sang Won Lee, John Clarkson, Gaetano Cascini
Author: Ranjbar Bourani, Mehdi; Cardin, Michel-Alexandre; Chong, Wen Sin; Atapattu, Ravindu; Foo, Kok Seng
Institution: 1: Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, National University of Singapore, Block E1A #06-25, 1 Engineering Drive 2, Singapore, 117576; 2: Keppel Offshore and Marine Technology Centre, 31 Shipyard Road, Singapore, 628130
This paper presents ongoing development for a novel integrated screening framework for flexibility analysis considering multi-domain uncertainty sources and multi-criteria for designing complex engineering systems. The proposed methodology aims to address two main issues in the design process for flexibility: 1) the complexity of exploring exhaustively flexible design strategies under multiple uncertainty sources, and 2) the multiple and possibly conflicting criteria inherent to design decision-making. The proposed screening framework is applied to a real-world capital-intensive project in the oil and gas industry. Current results indicate that the screening model offers better performance than a full exhaustive search of the design space in terms of the number of evaluations and simulation runtime, while providing good design solutions in terms of lifecycle performance. The work provides insights on how to analyze flexibility in the conceptual design of complex systems, especially when computational resources are limited, and design needs to consider multiple decision-making criteria.