A Market Systems Analysis of the U.S. Sport Utility Vehicle Market Considering Frontal Crash Safety Technology and Policy
Year: 2012
Editor: Assoc. Prof. Poul Kyvsgaard Hansen, Professor John Rasmussen, Assoc. Prof. Kaj A. Jřrgensen, Assoc. Prof. Christian Tollestrup
Author: Hoffenson, Steven; Frischknecht, Bart; Papalambros, Panos
Series: NordDESIGN
Institution: 1: Aalborg University, Denmark; 2: Design Society, United Kingdom
ISBN: 978-87-91831-51-5
Abstract
Active safety features and adjustments to the New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) consumer-information crash tests have the potential to decrease the number of serious injuries on United States (U.S.) roadways each year, according to previous studies. However, literature suggests that risk reductions, particularly in the automotive market, are often accompanied by adjusted consumer risk tolerance, and so these potential safety benefits may not be fully realized due to changes in consumer purchasing or driving behaviour. This article approaches safety in the new vehicle market, particularly in the Sport Utility Vehicle and Crossover Utility Vehicle segments, from a market systems perspective. Crash statistics and simulations are used to predict the effects of design and policy changes on occupant crash safety, and discrete choice experiments are conducted to estimate the values consumers place on vehicle attributes. These models are combined in a market simulation to forecast how consumers respond to available vehicle alternatives. The model is tested for a scenario where active safety features are implemented across the new vehicle fleet and a scenario where the U.S. frontal NCAP test speed is modified. Results exhibit evidence of consumer risk adjustment and support adding active safety features and lowering the NCAP frontal test speed, as these changes are predicted to improve the welfare of both firms and society.
Keywords: Automotive vehicle design, crashworthiness, market systems, safety policy.